Predicting the onset of end-stage knee osteoarthritis over two- and five-years using machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying participants who will progress to advanced stage in knee osteoarthritis (KOA) trials remains a significant challenge. Current tools, relying on total knee replacements (TKR), fall short in reliability due to the extraneous factors influencing TKR decisions. Acknowledging these limitations, our study identifies a critical need for a more robust metric to assess severe KOA. The end-stage KOA (esKOA) measure, which combines symptomatic and radiographic criteria, serves as a solid indicator. To enhance future trials that use esKOA as an endpoint, our study focuses on developing and validating a machine-learning tool to identify individuals likely to develop esKOA within 2 to 5 years. DESIGN: Utilizing the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) data, we trained models on 3,114 participants and validated them with 606 participants for the right knee, and similarly for the left knee, with external validation from the Multicentre Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) involving 1,602 participants. We aimed to predict esKOA onset at 2-to-2.5 years and 4-to-5 years, defining esKOA by severe radiographic KOA with moderate/severe symptoms or mild/moderate radiographic KOA with persistent/intense symptoms. Our analysis considered 51 candidate predictors, including demographics, clinical history, physical examination, and X-ray evaluations. An online tool predicting esKOA progression, based on models with ten and nine predictors for the right and left knees, respectively, was developed. RESULTS: External validation (MOST) for the right knee at 2.5 years yielded an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95 % CI 0.811 to 0.882), and at 5 years, 0.853 (95 % CI 0.823 to 0.881); for the left knee at 2.5 years, AUC was 0.824 (95 % CI 0.782 to 0.857), and at 5 years, 0.807 (95 % CI 0.768 to 0.843). Models with fewer predictors demonstrated comparable performance. The online tool is available at: https://eskoa.shinyapps.io/webapp/. CONCLUSION: Our study unveils a robust, externally validated machine learning tool proficient in predicting the onset of esKOA over the next 2 to 5 years. Our tool can lead to more efficient KOA trials.

Early Prediction of Poststroke Rehabilitation Outcomes Using Wearable Sensors.

OBJECTIVE: Inpatient rehabilitation represents a critical setting for stroke treatment, providing intensive, targeted therapy and task-specific practice to minimize a patient's functional deficits and facilitate their reintegration into the community. However, impairment and recovery vary greatly after stroke, making it difficult to predict a patient's future outcomes or response to treatment. In this study, the authors examined the value of early-stage wearable sensor data to predict 3 functional outcomes (ambulation, independence, and risk of falling) at rehabilitation discharge. METHODS: Fifty-five individuals undergoing inpatient stroke rehabilitation participated in this study. Supervised machine learning classifiers were retrospectively trained to predict discharge outcomes using data collected at hospital admission, including patient information, functional assessment scores, and inertial sensor data from the lower limbs during gait and/or balance tasks. Model performance was compared across different data combinations and was benchmarked against a traditional model trained without sensor data. RESULTS: For patients who were ambulatory at admission, sensor data improved the predictions of ambulation and risk of falling (with weighted F1 scores increasing by 19.6% and 23.4%, respectively) and maintained similar performance for predictions of independence, compared to a benchmark model without sensor data. The best-performing sensor-based models predicted discharge ambulation (community vs household), independence (high vs low), and risk of falling (normal vs high) with accuracies of 84.4%, 68.8%, and 65.9%, respectively. Most misclassifications occurred with admission or discharge scores near the classification boundary. For patients who were nonambulatory at admission, sensor data recorded during simple balance tasks did not offer predictive value over the benchmark models. CONCLUSION: These findings support the continued investigation of wearable sensors as an accessible, easy-to-use tool to predict the functional recovery after stroke. IMPACT: Accurate, early prediction of poststroke rehabilitation outcomes from wearable sensors would improve our ability to deliver personalized, effective care and discharge planning in the inpatient setting and beyond.

Polyphenol analysis in human milk by a rapid, cost-effective, and accurate micromethod: translational development / Análise de polifenóis no leite humano por meio de um micrométodo rápido, econômico e preciso: desenvolvimento translacional

ABSTRACT Objective: To develop a rapid method for analysing polyphenols, which are potentially active antioxidants against neonatal oxidative stress, from small human milk (HM) volumes. Methods: Acid and alkaline extractions were compared using two dyes: Folin-Ciocalteu and Fast Blue BB. Linearity, sensitivity, recovery percentage, polyphenol content, precision, and stability were assessed in 14 HM samples and compared using the Kruskal-Wallis H test (p<0.05). The best technique was applied to 284 HM samples to determine their polyphenolic content and its association with maternal diet by multifactorial linear regression. Results: Acidic extraction successfully recovered the gallic acid reference standard, whereas alkaline extraction overestimated it. Calibration curves for all methods were linear (R2>0.96) up to 500 mg/L. All bicarbonate-based Folin-Ciocalteu methods assayed were stable and repeatable, whereas Fast Blue BB-based variants were not. HM polyphenols (mean=94.68 mg/L) positively correlated to the dietary intake of hydroxycinnamic acids, the most consumed polyphenolic family in this population. Conclusions: A bicarbonate-based Folin-Ciocalteu micromethod allowed the accurate determination of polyphenols in HM, which might be useful for translational research settings and HM banks.

RESUMO Objetivo: Desenvolver um método rápido para analisar polifenóis, que são antioxidantes potencialmente ativos contra o estresse oxidativo neonatal, em pequenos volumes de leite humano (LH). Métodos: Foram comparadas extrações ácidas e alcalinas usando dois corantes: Folin-Ciocalteu e Fast Blue BB. Foram avaliadas variáveis como linearidade, sensibilidade, percentagem de recuperação, teor de polifenóis, precisão e estabilidade em 14 amostras de LH, comparadas usando o teste de Kruskal-Wallis H (p<0,05). A melhor técnica foi aplicada a 284 amostras de LH para determinar seu teor polifenólico e sua associação com a dieta materna por regressão linear multifatorial. Resultados: A extração ácida recuperou com sucesso o padrão de referência do ácido gálico, enquanto a extração alcalina o superestimou. As curvas de calibração para todos os métodos foram lineares (R2>0,96) até os 500 mg/L. Todos os métodos testados baseados em Folin-Ciocalteu com bicarbonato foram estáveis e repetíveis, enquanto as variantes baseadas em Fast Blue BB não. Os polifenóis do HM (média=94,68 mg/L) correlacionaram-se positivamente com a ingestão dietética de ácidos hidroxicinâmicos, a família de polifenóis mais consumida nesta população. Conclusões: Um micrométodo baseado em bicarbonato de Folin-Ciocalteu permitiu a determinação precisa de polifenóis no HM, o que pode ser útil para configurações de pesquisa translacional e bancos de HM.

Análisis costo-efectividad del tratamiento con terapia compresiva en la cicatrización de úlceras venosas / Cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment with compressive therapy in the healing of venous ulcers / Análise de custo-efetividade do tratamento com terapia compressiva na cicatrização de úlceras venosas

Objetivo: analizar el costo-efectividad y calcular la relación costoefectividad incremental del tratamiento multicapa compresivo con respecto al inelástico (bota de Unna y estiramiento corto) según la literatura actual. Método: estudio cuantitativo de costo-efectividad a través de un modelo con ayuda del software TreeAge® para la elaboración del árbol de decisión. Los supuestos anunciados se obtuvieron mediante el uso de datos secundarios de la literatura para estimar el costo y la efectividad de los parámetros asumidos. Para ello, se realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura con metaanálisis. Resultados: el árbol de decisión, después del Roll Back, mostró que la terapia multicapa prevaleció sobre las alternativas en el caso base, presentó un costo intermedio por aplicación, pero obtuvo la mayor efectividad. El gráfico del análisis de costo-efectividad también demostró que había un dominio extendido de la bota de Unna sobre el vendaje de estiramiento corto. El análisis de sensibilidad reveló que el vendaje multicapa sigue siendo la alternativa con mayor costoefectividad, dentro del umbral de disposición a pagar. Conclusión: la alternativa con mayor costo-efectividad fue el vendaje multicapa, considerado estándar de oro en la literatura. La segunda alternativa con mayor costo-efectividad fue la bota de Unna, la terapia más utilizada en Brasil.

Objective: to analyze the cost-effectiveness and calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of multilayer compressive treatment in relation to inelastic (Unna boot and short stretch) therapy according to the current literature. Method: quantitative study about cost-effectiveness through modeling with the aid of TreeAge® software for construction of the decision tree. The anticipated assumptions were obtained by using secondary literature data to estimate the cost and effectiveness of the assumed parameters. A systematic literature review with meta-analysis was performed for this end. Results: the decision tree after Roll Back showed that the multilayer therapy dominated the alternatives in the base case, representing an intermediate cost per application, although with the highest effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness analysis graph also showed extended dominance of the Unna boot in relation to the short stretch bandage. The sensitivity analysis showed that multilayer bandage remains a more cost-effective alternative, within the threshold of willingness to pay. Conclusion: the most cost-effective alternative was multilayer bandage, considered the gold standard in the literature. The second most cost-effective alternative was the Unna boot, the most used therapy in Brazil.

Objetivo: analisar a custo-efetividade e calcular a razão de custoefetividade incremental do tratamento compressivo multicamadas em relação ao inelástico (bota de Unna e curto estiramento) de acordo com a literatura atual. Método: estudo quantitativo sobre custo-efetividade por meio de modelagem com auxílio do software TreeAge® para a construção da árvore de decisão. Os pressupostos anunciados foram obtidos pelo uso de dados secundários de literatura para estimativa do custo e efetividade dos parâmetros assumidos. Para tal, foi realizada uma revisão sistemática de literatura com metanálise. Resultados: a árvore de decisão, após Roll Back mostrou que a terapia multicamadas dominou as alternativas no caso-base, representando custo intermediário por aplicação, porém, com a maior efetividade. O gráfico da análise de custo-efetividade também mostrou uma dominância estendida da bota de Unna em relação à bandagem de curto estiramento. A análise de sensibilidade mostrou que a bandagem multicamadas permanece como alternativa mais custo-efetiva, dentro do limiar de disposição para pagar. Conclusão: a alternativa com maior custo-efetividade foi a bandagem multicamadas, considerada padrão ouro na literatura. A segunda alternativa mais custo-efetiva foi a bota de Unna, terapia mais utilizada no Brasil.

Proposing a health-specific organizational impact framework to evaluate organizational impacts in health technology assessments.

OBJECTIVES: Health technology assessments (HTAs) have traditionally included clinical and cost-effectiveness evaluation of new health technologies (HTs). However, new HTs can generate important organizational impacts (OIs) that influence their overall value. OIs are currently not clearly identified and evaluated in HTA procedures and tools are limited. To address this issue, a comprehensive framework that allows to assess OIs of new HTs in HTAs is proposed. METHODS: A working and methodological group identified the Oslo Manual 2018, 4th edition, OECD/Eurostat, on the objectives and outcomes of commercial innovations as the basis for the OIs framework for HTAs. The Oslo Manual was translated to the healthcare sector and adapted to HTA procedures through a three-step process. RESULTS: The framework is composed of three main parts. Part I tackles the context of the evaluation, Part II the categories of impacts and the specific impacts - in total, 16 OIs were identified - and Part III the stakeholders involved. The central part of the framework is Part II, and consists of three categories of impacts: (i) on the care process, (ii) on the stakeholders' capabilities and skills, and (iii) on society or the community. CONCLUSIONS: This framework provides a comprehensive and structured basis to document OIs of new HTs. It thus contributes to the extension of HTA evaluation criteria to other dimensions than clinical and economic aspects, that is, organizational aspects. Some of its intrinsic limitations and the questions they raise in the field for policy-makers, practitioners, and researchers are discussed.

Estudo comparativo entre empresa farmacêutica global e instituição pública de produção e inovação em saúde / Comparative study between global pharmaceutical company and public institution of production and innovation in health

RESUMO O cenário tecnológico no campo da saúde é um fato alarmante, mormente no contexto provocado pela Covid-19. Nessa conjuntura, a Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, por meio da Unidade de Bio-Manguinhos, e o Butantan foram protagonistas para o acesso universal, dialogando com estratégicas internacionais. No adensamento da discussão estratégica para Instituições Públicas de Produção e Inovação em Saúde (Ippis), o uso de diretrizes da Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde destaca-se como via de mudança paradigmática para a introdução de tecnologias no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) alinhada à visão de inovação de futuro em saúde consonante às demandas nacionais. Este artigo, desenvolvido metodologicamente mediante pesquisas descritiva qualitativa, bibliográfica, documental e trabalho de campo, buscou traçar simetrias e assimetrias baseado nas experiências coletadas em empresa farmacêutica global e instituição de referência nacional pública do campo de incorporação tecnológica em saúde. Como resultados, são explicitados pontos-chave para o fortalecimento técnico e político do Complexo Econômico-Industrial da Saúde, por meio da revisão organizacional das Ippis quanto a aspectos de inovação e de gestão, culminado na promoção de melhorias na Política de ciência, tecnologia e inovação em resposta ao desafio da sustentabilidade, efetividade e acesso no SUS.

ABSTRACT The technological scenario in the field of health is an alarming fact, especially in the context caused by COVID-19. In this context, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, through the Bio-Manguinhos Unit, and the Butantan Institute were protagonists for universal access, dialoguing with international strategies. In the strategic discussion for Public Institutions of Production and Innovation in Health (IPPIS), the use of guidelines of the Technological Assessment in Health stands out as a way of paradigmatic change for the introduction of technologies in the Unified Health System (SUS) in line with the vision of future innovation in health in accordance with national demands. This article, methodologically developed through qualitative descriptive research, bibliographical, documentary and field work, sought to trace symmetries and asymmetries based on the experiences collected in a global pharmaceutical company and a public national reference institution in the field of technological incorporation in health. As a result, key points are explained for the technical and political strengthening of the Health Economic-Industrial Complex, through the organizational review of the IPPIS regarding innovation and management aspects, culminating in the promotion of improvements in the science, technology and innovation policy in response to the challenge of sustainability, effectiveness and access in the SUS.

IMproving facial PRosthesis construction with contactlESs Scanning and Digital workflow (IMPRESSeD): study protocol for a feasibility crossover randomised controlled trial of digital versus conventional manufacture of facial prostheses in patients with orbital or nasal facial defects.

BACKGROUND: Facial prostheses can have a profound impact on patients' appearance, function and quality of life. There has been increasing interest in the digital manufacturing of facial prostheses which may offer many benefits to patients and healthcare services compared with conventional manufacturing processes. Most facial prosthesis research has adopted observational study designs with very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) documented. There is a clear need for a well-designed RCT to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of digitally manufactured facial prostheses versus conventionally manufactured facial prostheses. This study protocol describes the planned conduct of a feasibility RCT which aims to address this knowledge gap and determine whether it is feasible to conduct a future definitive RCT. METHODS: The IMPRESSeD study is a multi-centre, 2-arm, crossover, feasibility RCT with early health technology assessment and qualitative research. Up to 30 participants with acquired orbital or nasal defects will be recruited from the Maxillofacial Prosthetic Departments of participating NHS hospitals. All trial participants will receive 2 new facial prostheses manufactured using digital and conventional manufacturing methods. The order of receiving the facial prostheses will be allocated centrally using minimisation. The 2 prostheses will be made in tandem and marked with a colour label to mask the manufacturing method to the participants. Participants will be reviewed 4 weeks following the delivery of the first prosthesis and 4 weeks following the delivery of the second prosthesis. Primary feasibility outcomes include eligibility, recruitment, conversion, and attrition rates. Data will also be collected on patient preference, quality of life and resource use from the healthcare perspective. A qualitative sub-study will evaluate patients' perception, lived experience and preference of the different manufacturing methods. DISCUSSION: There is uncertainty regarding the best method of manufacturing facial prostheses in terms of clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and patient acceptability. There is a need for a well-designed RCT to compare digital and conventional manufacturing of facial prostheses to better inform clinical practice. The feasibility study will evaluate key parameters needed to design a definitive trial and will incorporate early health technology assessment and a qualitative sub-study to identify the potential benefits of further research. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN10516986). Prospectively registered on 08 June 2021,  https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN10516986 .

Occupational therapy for persons with cognitive impairments.

Background: Damage to the central nervous system can occur in adulthood, for example, due to stroke, trauma, tumours, or chronic diseases. After damage to the central nervous system, cognitive impairments occur in addition to physical limitations. Occupational therapy is most often prescribed for neurological diagnoses, including stroke and traumatic brain injury. Methods: The health technology assessment (HTA) report this HTA article is based on investigates the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and patient-related, social and ethical aspects of occupational therapy for patients with cognitive impairments compared to no occupational therapy. In addition, the effects of different occupational therapy interventions with and without cognitive components were compared in an explorative overview. Patients with moderate or severe dementia are excluded from the assessment. Systematic overviews, that is, systematic reviews of systematic reviews, were conducted. Results: For the evaluation of clinical effectiveness, a total of nine systematic reviews were included. No systematic review was identified for the assessment of costs or cost-effectiveness. Five systematic reviews were included for the assessment of patient and social aspects. For the assessment of clinical effectiveness compared with no occupational therapy, five systematic reviews comprising 20 randomised controlled trials with a total of 1,316 subjects reported small positive effects for the outcomes "global cognitive function" and "activities of daily living" as well as a non-quantified positive effect on the outcomes "health-related quality of life" and "behavioural control". No effect was found for individual components of cognition and measures of perception. The quality of the evidence for all outcomes is low due to a high risk of bias. In the supplementary presentations, no positive effects could be demonstrated on the basis of the available evidence. The quality of this evidence was not assessed. For the assessment of patient and social aspects, five systematic reviews on patients with a stroke or a traumatic brain injury - without specification regarding cognitive deficits or studies with their relatives - were included. It was reported that patients and family caregivers go through different phases of rehabilitation in which the discharge home is a decisive turning point. The discharge home represents a crucial breaking point. Regaining an active, self-determining role is a process that requires therapists to find the right level of support for patients and relatives. For the assessment of ethical aspects, nine documents were included. We identified ethical problem-solving models for occupational therapy and 16 ethical aspects in occupational therapy for cognitive deficits. The central theme of the analysis is the limited autonomy due to the consequences of the disease as well as the resulting tensions with those treating the patient. Conclusions: Based on this systematic overview, it can neither be proven nor excluded with certainty that occupational therapy for cognitive impairment is an effective therapy for adult patients with central nervous system injuries compared to no occupational therapy. There is a lack of randomised trials with sufficient sample size, well-defined interventions, and comparable concomitant therapies in the control groups, but there is also a lack of well-designed observational studies in routine care and health economic studies. The identified systematic reviews on patient and social aspects provide information on the needs of patients after stroke or traumatic brain injury and their relatives, but there is a lack of studies on this aspect in German-speaking countries. For the ethical assessment, in addition to the identified theoretical models for solving ethical conflicts in occupational therapy, more empirical studies on ethical aspects with patients with cognitive deficits and their relatives as well as occupational therapists are needed.

Bioinspired Approaches to Engineer Antithrombogenic Medical Devices for Vascular Intervention.

Medical devices form a critical component of health care systems for treating and maintaining patient health. However, devices exposed to blood are prone to blood clotting (thrombosis) and bleeding complications leading to device occlusion, device failure, embolism and stroke, and increased morbidity and mortality. Over the years, developments in innovative material design strategies have been made to help reduce the occurrence of thrombotic events on medical devices, but complications persist. Here, we review material and surface coating technologies that have taken bioinspiration from the endothelium to reduce medical device thrombosis, either by mimicking aspects of the glycocalyx to prevent adhesion of proteins and cells to the material surface or mimicking the bioactive function of the endothelium through immobilized or released bioactive molecules to actively inhibit thrombosis. We highlight newer strategies that take inspiration from multiple aspects of the endothelium or are stimuli responsive, only releasing antithrombotic biomolecules when thrombosis is triggered. Emerging areas of innovation target inflammation to decrease thrombosis without increasing bleeding, and interesting results are coming from underexplored aspects of material properties, such as material interfacial mobility and stiffness, which show that increased mobility and decreased stiffness are less thrombogenic. These exciting new strategies require further research and development before clinical translation, including consideration of longevity, cost, and sterilization, but show capacity for the development of more sophisticated antithrombotic medical device materials.

Pathway map development for medical device event reporting in operating theatres: a human factors approach to improving the existing system.

Objectives: This study aimed to develop the actual pathway to reporting and information transfer in operating theatres in relation to medical technology malfunction/failure. This with the aim of understanding the differences with the pathway published by NHS Improvement and identification of points for improvement. Design: This is a qualitative study involving stakeholder interviews with doctors, nurses, manufacturers, medical device safety officer and Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Setting: Data were collected on reporting pathway used in operating theatres. Clinical staff who took part worked in different trusts throughout UK while manufacturers provided devices in UK and EU/USA. Participants: Semistructured interviews were completed with 15 clinicians and 13 manufacturers. Surveys were completed by 38 clinicians and 5 manufacturers. Recognised methods of pathway development were used. The Lean Six Sigma principles adapted to healthcare were used to develop suggestions for improvement. Main outcome measures: To identify the differences between the set pathway to reporting and information transfer to what is occurring on a day-to-day basis as reported by staff. Identify points in the pathway where improvements could be applied. Results: The developed pathway demonstrated great complexity of the current reporting system for medical devices. It identified numerous areas that give rise to problems and multiple biases in decision making. This highlighted the core issues leading to under-reporting and lack of knowledge on device performance and patient risk. Suggestions for improvement were deduced based on end user requirements and identified problems. Conclusions: This study has provided a detailed understanding of the key problem areas that exist within the current reporting system for medical devices and technology. The developed pathway sets to address the key problems to improve reporting outcomes. The identification of pathway differences between 'work as done' and 'work as imagined' can lead to development of quality improvements that could be systematically applied.

Predicting total knee replacement at 2 and 5 years in osteoarthritis patients using machine learning.

Objectives: Knee osteoarthritis is a major cause of physical disability and reduced quality of life, with end-stage disease often treated by total knee replacement (TKR). We set out to develop and externally validate a machine learning model capable of predicting the need for a TKR in 2 and 5 years time using routinely collected health data. Design: A prospective study using datasets Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and the Multicentre Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). OAI data were used to train the models while MOST data formed the external test set. The data were preprocessed using feature selection to curate 45 candidate features including demographics, medical history, imaging assessments, history of intervention and outcome. Setting: The study was conducted using two multicentre USA-based datasets of participants with or at high risk of knee OA. Participants: The study excluded participants with at least one existing TKR. OAI dataset included participants aged 45-79 years of which 3234 were used for training and 809 for internal testing, while MOST involved participants aged 50-79 and 2248 were used for external testing. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome of this study was prediction of TKR onset at 2 and 5 years. Performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) and F1-score and key predictors identified. Results: For the best performing model (gradient boosting machine), the AUC at 2 years was 0.913 (95% CI 0.876 to 0.951), and at 5 years 0.873 (95% CI 0.839 to 0.907). Radiographic-derived features, questionnaire-based assessments alongside the patient's educational attainment were key predictors for these models. Conclusions: Our approach suggests that routinely collected patient data are sufficient to drive a predictive model with a clinically acceptable level of accuracy (AUC>0.7) and is the first such tool to be externally validated. This level of accuracy is higher than previously published models utilising MRI data, which is not routinely collected.

Application of the ASCO value framework to evaluate the clinical and economic value of enzalutamide and apalutamide in the early stages of prostate cancer in Colombia.

Introduction: Prostate cancer has increased in recent years, increasing the costs associated with its treatment. Second-generation oral antiandrogens have emerged as an attractive therapeutic option. Objective: To compare the health value provided by enzalutamide and apalutamide, by evaluating two stages of prostate cancer: non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) and metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). Methods: To establish, through the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) value framework, a contrast between two technologies in two stages of prostate cancer. The monthly cost of the two technologies was calculated according to the current price regulation norm in Colombia. Results: Enzalutamide showed a higher net health benefit score compared to apalutamide for both nmCRPC (48.33 versus 33.46) and mHSPC (52.0 versus 40.75). The cost per net health benefit point for the nmCRPC stage was $214,723 Colombian Pesos (COP) ($54.84 USD) with enzalutamide compared to $291,925 COP ($74.56 USD) with apalutamide, and for the mHSPC stage was $199,692 COP ($51.00 USD) with enzalutamide and $239,701 COP ($61.22 USD) with apalutamide. Conclusion: After comparing enzalutamide versus apalutamide in the nmCRPC and mHSPC stages through the ASCO value framework, enzalutamide showed a more prominent net clinical benefit and a lower investment per point awarded.

Mapeamento dos bancos de dados em dispositivos médicos: revisão narrativa e o cenário brasileiro para avaliação com dados de mundo real (RWD) / Mapping of database in medical devices: review and the Brazilian scenario for evaluation with real world data (RWD)

Objetivo: Pretendeu-se mapear os bancos de dados governamentais em dispositivos médicos, na perspectiva pública com o intuito de contribuir como fonte para gerar dados de mundo real (RWD) e potencial para subsidiar estudos de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde (ATS). Métodos: Realizada revisão narrativa na base de dados do Embase. Os critérios para inclusão de elegibilidade foram: i) dimensão ampla de RDW nos processos de gestão de tecnologias; e ii) aplicação de RDW em processos regulatórios, cobertura e ATS. Também foram consultados os sistemas do Ministério da Saúde e da Anvisa. Resultados: A busca retornou 1.185 resultados; após leitura dos resumos, foram selecionados 29 artigos, sendo 5 incluídos. Na consulta ao catálogo do Datasus, foram localizados 262 sistemas informatizados; após análise da descrição sumária e principais objetivos, foram selecionados 12 sistemas que geram dados sobre dispositivos médicos. A falta de interoperabilidade dos sistemas é recorrente e a ausência de uma nomenclatura padronizada é um desafio a mais. Conclusão: Há crescente discussão do uso de RWD para subsidiar ATS em todo o ciclo de vida tecnológico, desde regulação até monitoramento do uso, como também para subsidiar análises de custo-efetividade e benefícios clínicos. Assim como nos demais países, o Brasil sistematizou inicialmente os dados administrativos para atender às demandas comerciais e financeiras. Os sistemas não geram dados dos resultados clínicos. São disponibilizados dados das tecnologias dispensadas e dos valores repassados e não são coletadas as informações dos benefícios do uso dessas tecnologias. Com a evolução dos métodos de ATS, a utilização de RWD tornou-se relevante.

Objective: It was intended to map government databases on medical devices, in the public perspective, in order to contribute as a source to generate real world data (RWD) and potential to subsidize Health Technology Assessment (HTA) studies. Methods: A narrative review was carried out in the Embase database. The criteria for inclusion of eligibility were: i) broad dimension of RDW in technology management processes; and ii) application of RDW in regulatory processes, coverage and HTA. The systems of the Ministry of Health and Anvisa were also consulted. Results: Results: The search returned 1,185 results, after reading the abstracts, 29 articles were selected, 5 of which were included. The catalog of Datasus database were consulted, 262 summaries with the description and the main objectives were analyzed, 12 systems were selected systems that generate medical devices. The lack of interoperability of systems is recurrent and the absence of a standardized nomenclature is an additional challenge. Conclusion: There is a growing discussion about the use of RWD to subsidize HTA throughout the technological life cycle, from regulation to monitoring of use, as well as to subsidize the examination of cost-effectiveness and clinical benefits. As in other countries, Brazil has systematized administrative data for commercial and financial data demands. The systems do not generate data on clinical outcomes. Data provided are on dispensed technologies, on transferred values and are not collected on the benefits of using these technologies. With the evolution of HTA methods, the use of RWD has become relevant.

O papel da sociedade civil na inovação e incorporação de dispositivos médicos no Brasil / The role of civil society in the innovation and incorporation of medical devices in Brazil

Objetivo: Abordar o contexto normativo quanto aos processos de participação social nas fases de Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento e Inovação (PD&I) e aos processos de regulação sanitária e de avaliação para incorporação de tecnologias no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Métodos: Pesquisa exploratória descritiva com revisão dos referenciais normativos e análise documental: i) nos marcos regulatórios de inovação brasileiros; ii) na regulação sanitária pela Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (Anvisa); e iii) na avaliação e incorporação de dispositivos médicos na Comissão Nacional de Incorporação de Tecnologias em Saúde no SUS (Conitec). Resultados: Nos sites das instituições governamentais de fomento à Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (CT&I) vinculadas ao Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI), observaram-se mecanismos de participação social estabelecidos na legislação. No contexto regulatório, a participação social se insere desde a construção dos regulamentos até etapas-chave do ciclo de vida da tecnologia. Na avaliação de tecnologias, verificou-se ampliação das estratégias de participação, a exemplo da "perspectiva do paciente" na plenária. Entre 64 chamadas públicas realizadas, cinco foram sobre dispositivos médicos. Conclusão: Evidenciou-se a importância da participação social em todas etapas do ciclo de vida dos dispositivos médicos, tendo em vista as especificidades dessas tecnologias. A Anvisa e a Conitec têm ampliado os mecanismos de participação para além dos preconizados em lei. Já nas etapas de PD&I, as iniciativas são incipientes, sendo localizadas ações conforme previsão legal. A ampliação de mecanismos de participação efetiva favorece a construção de soluções para minimizar os desafios de saúde, além de promover maior transparência, valor para a sociedade e confiança nas decisões em saúde brasileira.

Objective: To address the normative context regarding the processes of social participation in the phases of Research, Development and Innovation (RD&I), sanitary regulation and assessment for incorporation of technologies into SUS. Methods: Descriptive exploratory research with review of normative references and document analysis: i) in the regulatory milestones of Brazilian Innovation; ii) sanitary regulation by the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa); and iii) in the assessment and incorporation of medical devices in the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation into SUS (Conitec). Results: In the websites of government institutions that support RD&I linked to the MCTI, mechanisms of social participation established in the legislation were observed. In the regulatory context, social participation is inserted since the construction of regulations until key stages of the technology lifecycle. In the assessment of medical devices, we verified an expansion of engagement strategies, such as the "patient perspective" in the plenary meeting. From its 64 public calls, five were directed to medical devices. Conclusion: The importance of social participation in the

Integrating Empirical Analysis and Normative Inquiry in Health Technology Assessment: The Values in Doing Assessments of Health Technologies Approach.

Health technology assessment (HTA) aims, through empirical analysis, to shed light on the value of health technologies (O'Rourke et al. [2020, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 36, 187-90]). HTA is, then, where facts and values meet. But how, where, and when do facts and values meet in HTA? Currently, HTA is usually portrayed as a sequential process, starting with empirical analysis (assessment), followed by a deliberation on the implications of the findings for a judgment of a health technology's value (appraisal). In this paper, we will argue that in HTA, empirical analysis and normative inquiry are much more closely entwined. In fact, as we hope to show, normative commitments act as an indispensable guide for the collection and interpretation of empirical evidence. Drawing on policy sciences, we will suggest a concrete methodology that can help HTA practitioners to integrate empirical analysis and normative inquiry in a transparent way. The proposed methodology can be conceived as a concrete means for conducting a scoping exercise in HTA. Moreover, it offers a distinct way of giving stakeholders a structural and constructive role in HTA. This paper outlines the approach developed by the values in doing assessments of health technologies project, a project funded by the Erasmus+ program (contract number 2018-1-NL01-KA203-038960), which is the European Union's program to support education, training, youth, and sport in Europe. The project has resulted in an E-learning course, an accompanying handbook, and a consensus statement, all freely available from the project's website www.validatehta.eu.

A critical assessment framework to identify, quantify and interpret the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses.

BACKGROUND: Using a standardized approach to describe the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses might bring added value to the local critical assessment procedure of reimbursement submissions in Hungary. The aim of this research is to present a procedural framework to identify, quantify and interpret sources of uncertainty, using the reimbursement dossier of darolutamide as an illustrative example. METHODS: In the procedural framework designed for the critical assessment of cost-effectiveness analyses, the quantifiability of an identified source of uncertainty is assessed through the input parameters of the originally submitted model, which is followed by the interpretation of its impact on estimates of costs and outcomes compared to the base case cost-effectiveness conclusion. RESULTS: Based on our experiences with the recent reimbursement dossier of darolutamide, the significant and quantifiable sources of uncertainty were the time horizon of the economic analysis; the restriction of the efficacy analysis population; long-term relative effectiveness of darolutamide; price discount on subsequent therapies. We identified resource use patterns for comparator and subsequent therapies as a quantifiable, yet non-significant source of uncertainty. The EQ-5D value set used to estimate utility values was identified as a non-quantifiable and potentially not significant source of uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: The procedural framework, demonstrated with an example, was sufficiently flexible and coherent to document and structure the sources of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses. The full-scale use of this framework is desirable during the decision-making process for reimbursement in Hungary. The further formalization of identifying sources of uncertainty is a possible subject of methodological development.

Evidence-based funding of new imaging applications and technologies by Medicare in Australia: How it happens and how it can be improved.

BACKGROUND: The Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) is responsible for the assessment of medical imaging tests proposed for public funding. A number of factors related to the clinical or cost effectiveness of an imaging service may impact on the funding decision. OBJECTIVE: To determine what evidentiary and economic factors impact most on MSAC recommendations for the funding of imaging tests. METHODS: Information was extracted on health technology assessments (HTAs) of medical imaging tests published on the MSAC website, with a funding decision between 2006 to July 2021. Imaging tests with diagnostic, staging or screening indications were eligible. Data were extracted in test-indication pairs and included data on evidence quality, quantity, consistency of findings, cost-effectiveness and financial impact. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with adjustments for clustered data. RESULTS: Overall, 42 imaging test applications to MSAC were included, representing 91 clinical indications. Most were diagnostic tests. The most common evidentiary concerns reported by MSAC were limited evidence (36%), low quality evidence (26%), and applicability of the data (22%). The reference standard for diagnostic accuracy was imperfect or not appropriate in 25% of the indications. In regression analyses, uncertainty about cost-effectiveness of an imaging service predicted most negative funding decisions. CONCLUSIONS: The single biggest contributor to a negative funding decision by MSAC was uncertainty about the cost-effectiveness of the imaging service. This was likely driven by uncertainty regarding the impact on patient health. HTAs that are able to demonstrate the clinical utility of a new imaging service are more likely to publicly funded.

Evaluación externa de la calidad en laboratorios clínicos del nivel primario de la provincia Camagüey / External quality assessment in clinical laboratories of the primary health care in Camagüey

RESUMEN Introducción: La evaluación externa de la calidad es un procedimiento que compara los resultados de varios laboratorios que analizan la misma muestra, con el propósito de evaluar el desempeño analítico y asegurar la calidad. La provincia Camagüey fue incluida en forma permanente en el programa de evaluación externa de la calidad desde que se inició hasta que por diferentes dificultades nacionales y provinciales dicho programa no pudo continuar. Desde entonces, el comité de calidad de la provincia decidió organizar alternativas de evaluación con este propósito. En el 2016 se aplicó una nueva propuesta de evaluación en los laboratorios clínicos del nivel primario de atención. Objetivo: Evaluar la calidad de los resultados obtenidos en el procesamiento de los componentes de química clínica, en los laboratorios del nivel primario de la provincia Camagüey. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo transversal desde septiembre de 2017 hasta julio de 2018, el universo estuvo constituido por todos los laboratorios clínicos de la provincia Camagüey y se trabajó con una muestra no probabilística de 14 laboratorios. Resultados: El desempeño analítico de colesteroles, glucemia y creatinina fue aceptable y los triglicéridos no aceptables, un policlínico del municipio Camagüey mostró el menor por ciento de error de medida de precisión y de exactitud. Conclusiones: Los resultados de los colesteroles mostraron los mejores desempeños analíticos y los resultados obtenidos fueron más exactos que precisos en los componentes evaluados. Fue elevado el por ciento de participación de los laboratorios 04 y 09 durante todo el tiempo que duró el estudio.

ABSTRACT Introduction: External quality assessment is a procedure that compares the results of several laboratories that analyze the same sample, with the purpose of evaluating analytical performance and assuring quality. Camagüey participated constantly in the external quality assessment program from the beginning until, due to different national and provincial difficulties, said program could not continue. Since then, the province(s quality committee decided to organize assessment alternatives for this purpose. In 2016, a new assessment proposal was applied in clinical laboratories al the primary level of care. Objective: To evaluate the quality of the results obtained in the processing of clinical chemistry components in primary level laboratories in the province of Camagüey. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out from September 2017 to July 2018, the universe consisted of all clinical laboratories in the province of Camagüey and a non-probabilistic sample of 14 laboratories was used. Results: The analytical performance of cholesterol, blood-glucose level and creatinine was acceptable and triglycerides were unacceptable. A polyclinic in the municipality of Camagüey showed the lowest percentage of precision and accuracy measurement error. Conclusions: The cholesterols results showed the best performances and the results obtained were more exact than precise in the evaluated components. The participation percentage of laboratories 04 and 09 was high throughout the duration of the study.

Lamotrigine versus levetiracetam or zonisamide for focal epilepsy and valproate versus levetiracetam for generalised and unclassified epilepsy: two SANAD II non-inferiority RCTs.

BACKGROUND: Levetiracetam (Keppra®, UCB Pharma Ltd, Slough, UK) and zonisamide (Zonegran®, Eisai Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) are licensed as monotherapy for focal epilepsy, and levetiracetam is increasingly used as a first-line treatment for generalised epilepsy, particularly for women of childbearing age. However, there is uncertainty as to whether or not they should be recommended as first-line treatments owing to a lack of evidence of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lamotrigine (Lamictal®, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Brentford, UK) (standard treatment) with levetiracetam and zonisamide (new treatments) for focal epilepsy, and to compare valproate (Epilim®, Sanofi SA, Paris, France) (standard treatment) with levetiracetam (new treatment) for generalised and unclassified epilepsy. DESIGN: Two pragmatic randomised unblinded non-inferiority trials run in parallel. SETTING: Outpatient services in NHS hospitals throughout the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Those aged ≥ 5 years with two or more spontaneous seizures that require anti-seizure medication. INTERVENTIONS: Participants with focal epilepsy were randomised to receive lamotrigine, levetiracetam or zonisamide. Participants with generalised or unclassifiable epilepsy were randomised to receive valproate or levetiracetam. The randomisation method was minimisation using a web-based program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to 12-month remission from seizures. For this outcome, and all other time-to-event outcomes, we report hazard ratios for the standard treatment compared with the new treatment. For the focal epilepsy trial, the non-inferiority limit (lamotrigine vs. new treatments) was 1.329. For the generalised and unclassified epilepsy trial, the non-inferiority limit (valproate vs. new treatments) was 1.314. Secondary outcomes included time to treatment failure, time to first seizure, time to 24-month remission, adverse reactions, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Focal epilepsy. A total of 990 participants were recruited, of whom 330 were randomised to receive lamotrigine, 332 were randomised to receive levetiracetam and 328 were randomised to receive zonisamide. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority (hazard ratio 1.329) in the primary intention-to-treat analysis of time to 12-month remission (hazard ratio vs. lamotrigine 1.18, 97.5% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.47), but zonisamide did meet the criteria (hazard ratio vs. lamotrigine 1.03, 97.5% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.28). In the per-protocol analysis, lamotrigine was superior to both levetiracetam (hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.66) and zonisamide (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.73). For time to treatment failure, lamotrigine was superior to levetiracetam (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.77) and zonisamide (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.60). Adverse reactions were reported by 33% of participants starting lamotrigine, 44% starting levetiracetam and 45% starting zonisamide. In the economic analysis, both levetiracetam and zonisamide were more costly and less effective than lamotrigine and were therefore dominated. Generalised and unclassifiable epilepsy. Of 520 patients recruited, 260 were randomised to receive valproate and 260 were randomised to receive to levetiracetam. A total of 397 patients had generalised epilepsy and 123 had unclassified epilepsy. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority in the primary intention-to-treat analysis of time to 12-month remission (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.47; non-inferiority margin 1.314). In the per-protocol analysis of time to 12-month remission, valproate was superior to levetiracetam (hazard ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 2.15). Valproate was superior to levetiracetam for time to treatment failure (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.83). Adverse reactions were reported by 37.4% of participants receiving valproate and 41.5% of those receiving levetiracetam. Levetiracetam was both more costly (incremental cost of £104, 95% central range -£587 to £1234) and less effective (incremental quality-adjusted life-year of -0.035, 95% central range -0.137 to 0.032) than valproate, and was therefore dominated. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, levetiracetam was associated with a probability of 0.17 of being cost-effective. LIMITATIONS: The SANAD II trial was unblinded, which could have biased results by influencing decisions about dosing, treatment failure and the attribution of adverse reactions. FUTURE WORK: SANAD II data could now be included in an individual participant meta-analysis of similar trials, and future similar trials are required to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of other new treatments, including lacosamide and perampanel. CONCLUSIONS: Focal epilepsy - The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam or zonisamide as first-line treatments in focal epilepsy. Generalised and unclassifiable epilepsy - The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam as a first-line treatment for newly diagnosed generalised epilepsy. For women of childbearing potential, these results inform discussions about the benefit (lower teratogenicity) and harm (worse seizure outcomes and higher treatment failure rate) of levetiracetam compared with valproate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30294119 and EudraCT 2012-001884-64. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 75. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The SANAD II trial was a clinical trial designed to identify the most clinically effective and cost-effective treatment for adults and children aged > 5 years with newly diagnosed epilepsy. There are two main epilepsy types: focal and generalised. In focal epilepsy, seizures start at a single place in the brain (a focus), whereas in generalised epilepsy seizures start in both sides of the brain at the same time. Anti-seizure medications are the main treatment. For people with newly diagnosed epilepsy, the first anti-seizure medication should control the seizures as quickly as possible while avoiding side effects. The first-choice treatments are lamotrigine (Lamictal®, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Brentford, UK) for focal epilepsy and valproate (Epilim®, Sanofi SA, Paris, France) for generalised epilepsy (however, the latter should be avoided in women who could become pregnant). A number of newer anti-seizure medications have been approved for NHS use, but it is unclear whether or not they should be used as first-line treatments. The SANAD II trial focused on the new medicines levetiracetam (Keppra®, UCB Pharma Ltd, Slough, UK) and zonisamide (Zonegran®, Eisai Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan). We recruited 1510 people aged ≥ 5 years with newly diagnosed epilepsy: 990 with focal epilepsy and 520 with generalised or unclassified epilepsy. FINDINGS: FOCAL EPILEPSY: People starting treatment with levetiracetam or zonisamide were significantly less likely to have a 12-month remission from seizures than people starting treatment with lamotrigine, unless they were changed to another anti-seizure medication. Side effects that were thought to be caused by anti-seizure medications were reported by 33% of participants starting lamotrigine, 44% of those starting levetiracetam and 45% of those starting zonisamide. The cost-effectiveness analyses showed that neither levetiracetam nor zonisamide is value for money for the NHS when compared with lamotrigine. The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam or zonisamide as first-line treatments in focal epilepsy. FINDINGS: GENERALISED AND UNCLASSIFIABLE EPILEPSY: People starting treatment with levetiracetam were significantly less likely to have a 12-month remission from seizures than people starting valproate, unless they were changed to another anti-seizure medication. Side effects that were thought to be caused by anti-seizure medications were reported by 37% of participants starting valproate and 42% of participants starting levetiracetam. The cost-effectiveness analyses showed that levetiracetam is not good value for money for the NHS when compared with valproate. The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam as a first-line treatment for newly diagnosed generalised epilepsy. Importantly, our results will inform treatment decisions for women, who may choose a less effective treatment that is safer in pregnancy.